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Studies and researches
Vol. 16 Issue 1 - 6/2024
Population Growth and GDP Per Capita Growth: Identifying the Causal Variable in 30 African Countries
Within a wider framework of institutional factors of economic growth and the relationship between population growth and GDP growth, this article focuses on the population growth and GDP growth per capita for 30 countries in Africa between 1960 and 2020. We provide a comparative analysis of approaches to methodology and results obtained in the impact of population growth on GDP/pc growth discourse. By performing the Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality test, the estimation results show that half of the countries showed no causality and other half of countries showed different levels of significant causality. The most seen causality is the unidirectional causality from GDP growth per capita to population growth. In addition, unidirectional causality is observed from population growth to GDP growth per capita and bidirectional causality. Overall, the results add more evidence into the research of endogenous population growth theory, which implies that there is country-specific environment which determines the causality between these two variables. Read more
Keywords:
population growth, GDP growth per capita, Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality test, endogenous theory of population growth

JEL:
J01, O40
Studies and researches
Vol. 16 Issue 1 - 6/2024
Comparative Legal Assessment of the Mass Risk Insurance in the Czech and European Private International Law
The conflict of law rules applicable to the insurance of mass risks have crucial importance for the insurance contracts with international element from the legal and economical point of view, because the legal regime has overwhelming effect on the successful contract implementation. The differentiation between large and mass risks was developed historically in the European private international law by the legal regulation contained in the life- and non-life insurance directives, which contained conflict of laws rules designed for insurance contracts, which had to be implemented to the legal orders in the EU Member States. The relevance of the distinction between large and mass risks for the determination of applicable law is given also after entry into force of the Rome I Regulation, which had to codify in its art. 7 conflicts of laws rules of the insurance contracts for the purpose of elimination of the shortcomings, which were typical for the previous legal regulation, which was implemented from the EU life- and non-life directives also to the Czech legal order. Read more
Keywords:
Insurance, mass risk, insurance law, private international law, choice of law

JEL:
G22, K12, G52, K33, K41
Studies and researches
Vol. 16 Issue 1 - 6/2024
Emerging from the Storm: Forecasting Bank Loan Quality in the Aftermath of COVID-19
As part of the credit risk management process of financial institutions, the non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio remains one of the essential components that distinguishes the well-managed assets of a bank. In this paper, we aim to empirically forecast the level of non-performing loans (NPL) including afflicted periods like the COVID-19 pandemic using a seasonal ARIMA model. Our analysis is based on the NPLs level observed in the Albanian banking system between December 2015 and December 2022. The results indicate that the seasonal ARIMA (0,1,1)x(2,2,2)12 is the appropriate model that can be applied to predict the monthly level of NPLs. The results also reveal that the expected average monthly ratio of NPLs remains stable, with a slight decrease until the end of 2023. Efforts to be proactive rather than reacting post-factum involve using mechanisms and forecasting models to define non-performing loan ratios and better manage them. This paper considers significant implications in credit risk management in terms of developing actions to manage the magnitude of non-performing loans throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Read more
Keywords:
COVID-19, forecasting, SARIMA, non-performing loans

JEL:
E37, G21, C23, C53
Studies and researches
Vol. 16 Issue 1 - 6/2024
The Socio-Economic-Environmental Triangle: Quantitative Analysis of Interdependencies in European Union
Sustainable development goals are increasingly discussed today, so this paper investigates the interdependent relationships between economic, social and environmental factors within the European Union Member States. The study explores how GDP per capita, purchasing power, official support for development, poverty and social exclusion indicators, perceived health status, educational attainment, and environmental practices such as recycling rates, circular use of materials and net greenhouse gas emissions interact with each other. The results show overall positive trends between socio-economic development and environmental performance and show how stronger economies are largely conducive to improvements in social and environmental domains. However, the study also reveals important exceptions, highlighting the crucial role of effective national policies and resource management. By identifying and discussing these complex interrelationships, the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of how economic progress can be aligned with social progress and environmental responsibility, providing valuable insights for public policymaking in the European Union.